Winners in bold

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees

The Yankees and Angels are not dissimilar teams – they’re 1-2 in runs scored per game, and 14th and 18th in runs allowed per game.  But the problem for the Angels is that they come out on the low end of both of those measures, and not by a particularly close margin.  The Yanks also boast a .366 wOBA to the Halos’ .346, and a 4.32 FIP as compared to the Westerners’ 4.45.  Now, it should be noted that the Red Sox also had advantages in wOBA and FIP, and yet the Angels had little trouble sweeping them out of the playoffs.  And that happened mostly because the Angels were able to shut down the talented Sox offense, to say nothing of hitting Jonathan Papelbon’s fastballs.  The same thing could happen here; if Jered Weaver and John Lackey go out and dominate again, the Yankees could quickly be in hot water.  And with their announced intention to go with 3 starters, the last thing they want is an extended series.  But, for me, I can’t pick against this deep, powerful lineup and lefty ace that can neutralize the Angels for a couple of wins.  Yankees in 6.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I really do want to pick the Phillies here after they played well against the Rockies.  That was a tough team they dispatched, and their offense showed the ability to keep them in any game.  But one thing jumped out at me as I was researching this: the Dodgers feast on left-handed pitching.  As a team, they hit .294/.380/.469 against southpaws – think David Wright with some extra power. And as you might remember, the Phillies feature two such pitchers at the top of their rotation.  While the Rockies can be neutralized by lefties, the Dodgers will likely benefit.  Further, the Dodgers are stocked in the bullpen, meaning there’s only so much even Joe Torre can do to mess it up, and Clayton Kershaw should be good for two wins. I just don’t see enough adding up in Philly’s favor for them to overcome this Dodgers team.  And yes, this is despite the fact that I picked the boys in blue to lose in the first round.  Let’s move on from the past, and look ahead to a future of Dodgers in 5.

The Red Sox want to keep Bay and Bay wants to stay with the team. Yet, a deal just hasn’t happened. With that said, uncertainty exists and the Red Sox need to find other options in case Bay doesn’t resign. Expect the Red Sox to search for his replacement in the free agent market.

Since it’s Boston and they have deep pockets, Matt Holliday is a likely replacement. Bay has more power – 36 home runs, 119 RBI – and did more offensively in 50 fewer at-bats. Holliday is a better defender whose numbers could mimic Bay’s if placed in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for a full season. But Holliday is represented by Scott Boras, who as Sean McAdam notes, “After the Sox failed to sign free agent Mark Teixeira last December, Red Sox ownership vowed to not do business with Boras’ clients again, though that might have been the frustration talking.”

If Holliday wants a contract equal to or greater than Bay’s and the Sox won’t meet Bay’s demands, they won’t go for Holliday.

The Red Sox have other options. Specifically, they could go after Angels players Chone Figgins and Bobby Abreu. Figgins would give the Sox a lead-off hitter and speed in a position they usually reserve for run producers. He and Jacoby Ellsbury would give the Red Sox an unrivaled 1-2 in their lineup that would be able to steal bases and score runs at will. If the Red Sox show interest in Figgins, don’t expect them to be the only team bidding for his services. Figgins will be in high demand this offseason, which will drive up his asking price.

Abreu could patrol left field in Boston. He’s also a patient hitter, much like Bay and Holliday. Abreu also produces runs. Abreu has 100 or more RBI in eight straight seasons and in nine of the past 10. Adding Abreu to the lineup would also give the Red Sox an all-lefty outfield to balance the all-righty infield. The Red Sox could get him cheaper than Bay or Holliday for what would probably be a shorter termed deal.  

Rick Ankiel is also a free agent. But as Zach explained, he’s more of a fourth outfielder. He could start elsewhere, but probably not in Boston.

Jermaine Dye could also be a possibility. His time in Chicago seems up. He can still hit the ball and hit 27 home runs and drove in 81 RBI in 2009. The Sox would be giving up some offense by putting Dye in their lineup, but he can still help the team. At 35, Dye isn’t getting any younger, which would mean the Sox would try to sign him to a shorter deal. They’d have to go through this process again after 2010 if they signed Dye.

Other outfielders are also available in this free agent class. Since this is Boston, expect them to go after the marquee free agents. They have the money to go after them. The question is which free agent it will be. It’s no secret they want to resign Bay, but it’s not a given.

• MLB.com’s Marty Noble wonders if Jason Bay or Matt Holliday would be willing to sign with the Mets due to their steep decline this year. I remember last season when Holliday to the Mets seemed all but done in 2010, but I don’t think it happens now.
• Mike MacDougal had some hip surgery yesterday, and expects to be fully recovered by spring training. MacDougal has a $3.75MM club option for next year, and last I’d heard the Nationals haven’t decided one way or another. My suggestion? Don’t do it, and let him walk.
• The Brewers are interviewing candidates for their pitching coach vacancy. Bryan Price is one of the candidates, and I’ve been a fan of his sever since he made Paul Abbott look like a successful pitcher in Seattle.
• Bobby Jenks doesn’t like it when you call him fat.

Now, here’s the career splits of all four of those players (baseball players, not Clinton; this isn’t the place for subtle political humor) when facing left and right handers.

Utley vs LHP:  .287/.375/.502.  Utley vs RHP: .305/.383/.544 
Howard vs LHP: .226/.310/.444.  Howard vs RHP: .307/.409/.661
LHB vs Street: .219/.299/.370, 2.46 K:BB.   RHB vs Street: .204/.241/.286, 6.13 K:BB
LHB vs Beimel: .265/.326/.404, 2.51 K:BB.  RHB vs Beimel: .285/.365/.424, 0.90 K:BB

Now, it’s apparent that Street is a much more effective pitcher than
Beimel.  So I can understand leaving him in to face Utley – and indeed,
Street almost retired him.  But Utley’s splits aren’t THAT much different; he’s still an All-Star level hitter against lefties.  Where I have a problem with Jim Tracy’s strategy is what happened when Ryan Howard came to the plate.  Ryan Howard is awful
against lefties.  Just awful.  When a lefty on the mound, he’s Ronnie
Belliard (actually, a little worse; Belliard’s career OPS is .757). 
Against righties, he’s practically Ted Williams.  At this point, you ignore the fact that Street is better than Beimel, because Beimel against Howard is a better situation than Street against Howard.  So why would a
manger, who presumably has access to this information, leave a
right-handed pitcher in to face Howard when he has a lefty ready in the
pen?

Well, the answer’s pretty simple, isn’t it: Huston Street, the righty, is The Closer.  And it is just unspeakable that somebody other than The Closer pitch in the ninth inning; it’s rare territory that is just too demanding for any normal pitcher. But the fact of the matter is, the last three outs – and this is important – are no more difficult to get than any other three outs.  Further, the ninth inning is often easier to pitch in than earlier innings, since relievers always come in with the bases empty. 

To illustrate this point: imagine that you’re managing a team, any team, against the Cardinals.  It’s the bottom of the 6th, you’re winning 5-4, and your pitcher walked Joe Thurston in the 9 spot (shame on him).  Well, this is worrying.  You get the bullpen up.  Skip Schumaker singles.  Runners on 1st and 3rd.  Ohh, boy.  Colby Rasmus works a walk.  Well, now you’re really in trouble.  Albert Pujols is up, the bases are full of Redbirds, and there’s nobody out.  So you go out there and take out your starter, because he’s done.  And you call to the pen and bring out some middle reliever, who promptly hangs a slider that Pujols, as is his wont, hammers 450 feet to left center.

Now, unless your stadium fences 455 feet away in the alley, you’ve just given up four runs and that one run lead has become a 3-run deficit.  And all of this could’ve been avoided if you’d just brought in your best pitcher.  But…he’s your Closer, you say.  He can only pitch in the ninth! And maybe the eighth, but only for like a batter; let’s not get crazy.

That situation happens far too often.  Managers save their best pitchers for the ninth inning, when no one is on base, and the team has the lead.  To wit, Brad Lidge in his perfect season never once got more than three outs in a game.  To be fair, he’s rarely gotten so many as three outs this season, but I’m trying to prove a point here – managers should pay attention to the situation more than the inning when deciding which pitcher to bring into the game.  This is especially true of bad teams, or at least teams with bad bullpens; it’s one thing for the Yankees to insist on using Mariano Rivera exclusively in the 9th, because they have other quality options in the bullpen, and are often playing with the lead.  But if you’re the Royals, you (a) don’t have very many 9th-inning leads to protect, and (b) are giving the bulk of your relief innings to bad pitchers.  So why not get more use out of your best bullpen arm in Joakim Soria, have him throw 100 innings a year, and maximize his value?

Well, one reason is the fact that saves are, for some reason, used as the measuring stick for relievers.  Francisco Rodriguez got himself a $37 million contract because he saved 62 games, despite a not-so-eye-popping ERA, diminishing stuff, and declining control.  Rafael Betancourt in 2007 allows 0.75 baserunners per inning, strikes out 9 per 9 while walking just 1 per 9 and gets…nothing.  Treating saves as an indicator of how relievers perform is the sort of thinking that lets 2007 Joe Borowski pitch in 65 innings despite a 5.07 ERA.  But he must be good, right, because he had a league-leading 45 saves?  Sigh…  We see the same sort of problem with Brian Fuentes this year; he led the league with 48 saves, but he had a 1.40 WHIP and ~4.00 ERA.  And yet people are just as likely to point to the 48 saves and say he was good as they are a 1.92 K:BB ratio to say that he’s, well, not very good. 

What really strikes me as strange about saves is that they are the ultimate “compiler” stat.  You know how people say Bert Blyleven shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame because he was a “compiler;” that his 3,701 strikeouts and 287 wins are the result of just hanging around the game for lots of years?  Well, why aren’t closers viewed as “compilers?”  The stat that they compile is no more useful than a hold (and significantly less useful than compiling 3,701 strikeouts) – but no one is going to be talking about Scot Shields for the Hall of Fame any time soon.  It’s as if saves are some sort of noble stat that are beyond the reach of all except a special class of hardened warriors.  Of course, with the way that closers have been blowing saves this past week, they might all pitch themselves out of a job and bring a merciful end to this inane practice.

2009 marked the first time in the Wild Card era that all four teams clinched their spot in the Championship series on the road. All four winners had home-field advantage and all four clinched at the opponent’s stadium. Before this postseason, six seasons featured three series winners closing out the first round away from home (1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, and 2007). 2001 was the only season in which all four Division Series were clinched at home. 2009 also tied 2007 for the fewest Division Series games played with only 13. Philadelphia prevented a stand alone record by letting the Rockies make their NLDS interesting for one more game.

Now for that look ahead. The Phillies travel to Los Angeles in rematch of last season’s NLCS. The difference this season is that LA has home field advantage. They also have Andre Ethier, who is 6-for-12 with a .571 OBP, 1.333 SLG, 2 home runs, 3 RBI, 2 doubles, a triple, and 5 runs in 3 games. Last season, it took Ethier two playoff series to collect 6 total hits. Ethier has come into his own this season and it will be interesting to see if he can keep his hot streak going against Philadelphia’s left-hander dominant rotation. He hit only .194/.283/.345 against lefties during the regular season. If he doesn’t step up, Manny Ramirez and Matt Kemp will have to.

The Phillies showed their mettle in Game 4 of the NLCS against Colorado. Don’t expect their lineup to slow down against the Dodgers. Jayson Werth broke out for the Phillies this season, giving them yet another weapon for the lineup. The Dodgers easily dispatched the Cardinals lineup, but Philadelphia’s is stronger and presents more of a challenge. The Phillies lineup is more than just Ryan Howard.

In the American League, the teams with the best records in the League will meet to decide the champion. It figures that Game 1 will lead with each team’s ace. John Lackey for the Angels and CC Sabathia for New York. The Yankees record was 6 games better, but it seems they must go through the Angels to get to the World Series. The Angels defeated the Yankees, 3-1, in a 2002 Division Series on their way to a World Series championship. In 2005, the Angels beat the Yankees, 3-2, in another ALDS. The Angels don’t have the same postseason problems with the Yankees that they have with the Red Sox. The Yankees are 3-6 all-time against the Angels in postseason play. The Angels have also not had a losing regular season record against the Yankees since 2003.

This season, they finished the regular season 5-5. The Yankees are hungry to win. They’re built for it. Both teams are. Both teams are different than what they were in 2002 and 2005. The Yankees have more consistent pitching now and are getting postseason contributions from Alex Rodriguez. The Angels didn’t hit with as much power in the Division Series, but hit well enough to win. This series should be very evenly matched and will come down to which team takes advantage of the breaks that go their way.

No matter what, each Championship Series will be entertaining.

The idea to trade Papelbon this offseason is just flat out dumb. I know Red Sox fans are pissed off about the ALDS and how game 3 ended, but trading Papelbon is not the answer.

Firstly, there is already an absurd number of closers out there on the free agent market. Why would any team pay a premium price forPapelbon when there are so many effective lower cost options available (Kevin Gregg, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano)?

In addition, one of the ideas why the Red Sox would trade Papelbon is because his salary is becoming too exorbitant. Papelbon earned $6.25 million this season and will be due another raise in arbitration this winter. But lemme ask you this: what team out there is willing to pay a closer between $8-$10 million annually?