Roundtable: Ken Griffey Jr

This week’s question: Should Ken Griffey Jr. retire, or come back to the Mariners as a pinch hitter next season?

Daniel says…I don’t know if Junior is willing to take that kind of minor bench role – if he is then he’d want to come back, and if he’s not them he should retire. From the M’s point of view, they’ve had this last hurrah with a former cornerstone of their franchise and the results on the field haven’t been great; .215/.324/.408, 0.2 Wins Above Replacement worth $0.8 M (which is less than he was paid). They should say goodbye to Griffey and presume that he’ll then step away from the game.

Charlie says…It’s been great to watch Ken Griffey Jr. throughout the years.  Injuries and age have diminished Jr. to the point where it’s almost sad to watch him play anymore.  I just don’t see the point in another season of pinch hitting and spot starting for Griffey.  He’s one of the greatest players to ever play the game and I will always think of him in his prime.  It’s time for him to walk away  and start the clock on his first ballot Hall of Fame induction.

Ricky says…Not sure how much use he would be as a pinch hitter for an AL team. Maybe retiring on a relatively high note (629 homers) might be the best option. Although the Mariners look to have a better chance for postseason play in 2010 and Junior still doesn’t have a World Series ring. Not to say Seattle are favorites for a berth, they just have a better shot next year. Should he retire? I say yes.

Jonathan says…Griffey should return to the Mariners in 2010. Griffey can still hit the occasional home run as a bench player. He hit 19 home runs and drove in 57 runs this season. He can still play and proved that in 2009. His ultimate value now lies in his veteran leadership. Griffey had fun this season and it rubbed off on his teammates. The M’s could use his leadership next season. He’s also a recognizable name for the Mariners franchise and gets fans into the seats at Safeco.

Brad says…If he desperately wants to stay in the majors, I see nothing wrong with him being a pinch hitter, but I hope he retires.  The Mariners did improve this season dramatically, but they are not a great playoff bet for next season.  While he has hit 19 home runs this year in 383 at bats, he only hit .214.  He already has Hall of Fame numbers, with 630 HR and is not closing in on any major milestone.  Nobody wants to see him come back and struggle to stay over .200, which seems far too likely.  I wish him well if he comes back, but I think it is time after a great 21 year career.  

Robert says…It’s time for Junior to hang ‘em up. He’s a mortal lock for a first ballot Cooperstown invite and, as far as we know, has never been suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs so his legacy is secure. If the Mariners want to pay him to pinch hit next year, that’s their choice but they shouldn’t. One of the saddest sights I’ve ever seen was Willie Mays struggling to play for the Mets in the twilight of his incredible career. Ken Griffey Jr needs to make sure that never happens to him. Leaving now with nothing but great memories etched in baseball history is the right move. You were one of the best ever, Kid.

Zach says…Griffey needs to retire. Because he can’t play in the field, keeping him on the roster is a hard task. If he wants to stay, the Mariners have to oblige him, but can’t want to do so. Time to hang it up, Junior. Your work here will always be remembered.

Roundtable: Bobby Cox and Atlanta

Small roundtable this week, as we start the move of the roundtable to Mondays.

Question: What will you remember from Bobby Cox’s regime in Atlanta?

Zach says…His fire. I’ve always loved the hot-headed managers, and Cox won a lot of people their ejection league titles every year. I’ll also remember the way he and Mazzone worked their pitching staff, and the big three that Atlanta had for years.

Daniel says…Of the things I’ll remember about Bobby Cox’s time in Atlanta, only one of them is Bobby Cox – and that would be him arguing and getting thrown out of games (it did happen often enough).  Otherwise it’s the players from those Braves teams in the mid-to-late 90′s; Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, Chipper Jones (plus finding out his name is Larry – that was big), Andruw Jones, Fred McGriff, Ryan Klesko, Javy Lopez. The great pitching and role-players (like Jeff Blauser) in the line-ups surrounding the stars. It was really a pleasure to watch, and it seemed like – with a couple exceptions (John Rocker) – it was all about what was happening on the field.  I guess you can give some credit to Cox for that as well.

Ricky says…The winning consistency. Being in the postseason year after year until it was thought as a given, even ignored, since they didn’t go far in the last 4-5 postseasons.

Robert says…Bobby Cox has had a Hall of Fame career managing in Atlanta but I’ll remember his playoff failures more than anything else. With 14 straight division titles, the Braves proved they were perhaps the ultimate regular season team but Cox was at the helm for too many post-season breakdowns. There’s just no way the Braves should have lost to so many lesser teams come October … Phillies 93, Yankees 96, Marlins 97, Padres 98 and so on. In some ways, I’m glad for him that the Braves did grab their one ring in 95 because if he had gone 0-for-14, that’s all anyone would have remembered. A great career and most likely a ticket to Cooperstown but too much woulda coulda shoulda to forget.

Jonathan says…I’ll remember Bobby Cox for two attributes. The first is his teams’ ability to consistently reach the playoffs, even if they barely every won the World Series.  The other is his fire and ability to get ejected in almost any situation.

Roundtable: Johnny Damon

Sorry this is late. Things got in the way this weekend, and may get in the way even more content wise this week. Will do my best. 

Also, please welcome Brad Templeman to the roundtable. He will be joining the writing staff here, and you can read more of his work at Baseball In-Depth.

Question: Should the Yankees bring back Johnny Damon?

Charlie says…The Yankees should bring Johnny Damon back only if his he is willing to sign a one year deal for less money.  Sure his resurgence in power is great, but there are other factors to consider against him.  First off is age and health.  At age 36 Damon is by no means done, but he’s not exactly going to get much better either.  Over the last 3 seasons, he’s averaged about 140 games played.  My biggest cause for concern is the decrease in steals to only 10 this year.  His UZR rating is his worst since 2006, not that he was considered a good fielder anyway.  Johnny Damon is still a good baseball player, but he’s not worth a long-term investment anymore.   

Ricky says…Johnny “Poke” is having one the best seasons in his career after the team move to a even more lefty-hitting friendly ball park in New Yankee Stadium. However his age may getting to him eventually at 36 next season and his eye at the plate slowed some with is highest K% of his career. But I think they will keep Damon for one more year since they will likely have enough payroll after this possible World Series run. Then they are able to retain Damon, Matsui, and then some. It will likely be a one year deal though in order for the Yankees to save leftfield for a possible Carl Crawford signing after the 2010 season.

Brad says…Yes, although it depends on how long he wants to come back for because he will soon turn 36.  Damon has thrived in the New Yankee Stadium, hitting a home run every 15 at-bats at home this year.  While he is not stealing as many bases this year (10 in 2009 vs. 29 in 2008), he is still scoring a lot of runs (102 so far) and is hitting .282 with a decent .365 OBP.  He has also been remarkably consistent throughout his career, playing in at least 140 games and scoring at least 90 runs every year since 1998.  By keeping Damon, the Yankees could keep a steady veteran who could put up good numbers in the New Yankee Stadium for a few more years. 

Robert says…Nope, he’s done. If the Yankees don’t have someone in the minors who can step in right away for Damon, then they’ll need to buy a free agent or swing a trade. Either way, Johnny Damon’s time is just about up. New York may be able to squeeze another year out of him but it’s better to let a player go a little early then a little late. Damon is right on time for exit stage left.

Jonathan says…Recent thought states the Yankees are amenable to resigning Damon, but they shouldn’t.  There aren’t enough reasons to keep Damon in Yankees pinstripes. Yes, he’s an offensive force. He can hit for average and power while hitting both righties and lefties. He also steal bases and scores runs. But Damon’s offensive production is belied by his defensive inabilities. His range makes up for subpar arm strength. His UZR is at -8.1. The Yankees could put him at DH, but he’d have to contend for playing time with Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada. Plus, the Yankees have Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner. They should let Damon go and use the draft picks to help restock their system.

Roundtable: Smoltz or Penny?

Question: Who’s more important to their team for the rest of the year: Brad Penny, or John Smoltz.

Zach says…Smoltz. Not because he’s better than Penny, but because the Cardinals are almost a lock for the playoffs and the Giants may not even make it. Plus, he has plenty of playoff games under his belt, and his time as a closer has made him learn how to pitch in the clutch. Penny may be the better pitcher, but Smoltz will turn out to be more important for the rest of the year.

Robert says…Neither. Maybe Smoltz by a nose because of his vast playoff experience but Brad Penny has pitched in the post-season too. Penny is certainly younger than Smoltz and thus able to pitch more innings but the Giants staff was already that team’s main strength. Bottom line is neither of these two acquisitions is the key ingredient for a title run. They’re both nice additions but not vital. The really curious aspect of their respective trades is how much better they’ve both pitched since leaving Boston for the NL. It begs the question whether Boston’s coaching isn’t up to speed or the difference between the two leagues is that profound.

Daniel M says…Brad Penny. The Giants are 4.5 games behind the Rockies in the Wild Card chase, so they need Penny to pitch well the rest of the year to have a better chance of making the playoffs. The Cardinals have an 11.5 game lead in the Central, so John Smoltz could get lit up in every start from here on out and it shouldn’t matter.  Including the post-season though, it’s probably Smoltz since he’s higher up on the depth chart amongst starters with St. Louis – so he might be starting in the playoffs (or he would pitch, likely effectively, out of the pen) – rather than Penny who’s more likely to be the Giants’ 5th best starter and thus would not get a start.

Jonathan says…Brad Penny is the more important pitcher.  It’s not a matter of comparing pitchers and stats; both were solid additions by their respective clubs.  This is a question of which pitcher can do more for his team. Penny’s pitching will help determine whether San Francisco makes the playoffs. St. Louis is already a lock to make the playoffs out of the NL Central. Smoltz is almost an afterthought for that rotation. Smoltz is a number five starter who can afford to pitch like a number five. The Giants, however, are fighting to make the playoffs as the Wild Card. Penny has to pitch better than a number five guy make that happen.

Charlie says…Brad Penny.  It’s not easy for me to say that, because I’m not a big Brad Penny fan, but the truth is that his addition gives the Giants a fifth starter with experience and the stuff to succeed in the NL West.  With the NL central basically locked up, the Cardinals will not need Smoltz to carry them the rest of the month.  In fact, the more Smoltz pitches, the more he looks worn down.  He could be a very solid addition to the Cardinal’s bullpen come October, but Brady Penny fills a much bigger need and plays a much bigger role for the Giants right now and perhaps in the playoffs.  

Ricky says…It has got to be the one starting for a team that is (before Friday’s games) 4.5 games behind in the Wild Card and 6.5 out of the division with about 20 games left. That team, the San Francisco Giants, need all the wins they can get from a starter (Brad Penny) who pitches 3-4 more starts this season. The Cardinals can go by with just four starters in the playoffs so John Smoltz can solidify the team by adding a reserve starter or a long man in the bullpen. Penny is starting on a team fighting to survive and Smoltz on a team just waiting for October.

Wow, was I outgunned on that one. Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Roundtable: On TV, or in person?

After a slow day yesterday, here is this week’s roundtable question: Is it better to watch a game in person at the ballpark, or on TV?

Zach says...On TV. From most places in the ballpark, it’s hard for me to see the best part of the game for me: the pitching. Unless you are right behind home plate, you just can’t read the movement on the pitches like I enjoy doing. Baseball is a long game, so multitasking also comes into play here. I often watch a game while researching for an article or doing chores, but I rarely just sit down to watch a game. Don’t get me wrong, going to a game is an experience (I went to a M’s game Wed, and a AAA Rainiers game Thurs), but the big field and many hours devoted to a game doesn’t match the atmosphere of other events like basketball games. Going to the ballpark is fun once in awhile, but I would rather stay home and turn on the tube.

Daniel M says…Both? The ballpark atmosphere is tremendous, and as an O’s fan I’ve got a very nice park to go to. Going to the park with friends is an almost guaranteed great time regardless of outcome. On the other hand, it’s much easier to tell what’s going on (for me) on TV, and I get a better look at the talent of the players that way.  Plus, when the O’s are down 10-1 to the Yankees I can flip something else on. If I really wanted to watch a pitcher’s start I’d do it on TV. If I just wanted to hang out with people I’d go to the park. Win-win. [Note: Answer might change a little if I had really good tickets all the time.]

Robert says…Seeing a baseball game live at a ballpark far outweighs seeing one on television. The “shape” and dimensions of the game itself make it much more difficult to broadcast than either football or basketball whose playing fields are shaped similar to a TV screen. For example, let’s look at the home run and analyze it from this perspective. On television, your viewing angle is from behind the pitcher. When the batter makes contact, the ball disappears up and out of your screen. Then the camera switches to an outfield view where you can see the bleacher fans with their hands in the air looking upward as the ball reappears and drops down into your view again.  Now contrast that with being at the ballpark where you can see a home run soaring in a long deep parabola rising over the field and toward the fence. Your eyes follow it all the way as you rise from your seat wondering (hoping? dreading?) if it’s got the distance or not.  The crowd roar (or groan) says it all. There is no TV in the world that can show that. And don’t even get me started on the triple down the right field line with the speedster on the bases and the right fielder with a cannon arm. Ooh, it’s gonna be close.

Jonathan says…I think this is the toughest roundtable question we’ve done.  Each option has its pluses and minuses. As much as I like going to the ballpark, I have to say watching on TV is slightly better.  Watching a game on TV allows you to listen to either the TV or radio broadcast. If the announcers are any good, they’ll give you extra insight about a batter, pitcher, team, or game situation.  You also get a set view of the game and can see every pitch and every play. Not every seat in a stadium is unobstructed. Also, you don’t have to deal with rowdy fans around you if you’re at home. Yes, I’m from Philadelphia, but we don’t corner the market on drunken fans. I don’t miss that when I sit at home. You can never recreate the ballpark atmosphere at home, no matter how you cook the hot dogs. At the same time, however, you get to enjoy the game without certain distractions.

Ricky says…Going to the ballpark in person is the best way to go. The sounds, smells, feel, and sights is what makes a trip to the ballpark so special. Although some of the more intentive fans like myself lose the detail and intimacy from watching the game on television, you can still enjoy the experience and see the game in a different view rather than images from a box. Even if you are sitting in the nosebleeds.

Charlie says…I look at this two ways. 

1. I actually prefer watching MLB games on TV because I can see every pitch location and how the hitter reacts…and the beer is cheaper. 
2. If we’re talking about a minor league or college game, that’s a different story.  Obviously minor league and college games aren’t televised like MLB games, but it’s not just that.  Not only does it cost less to go see these games, but it is much easier to get seats closer to the field.  When I watch a minor league game I am half scouting, trying to get a feel of the athleticism and plate approach of hitters and the command and “stuff” of a pitcher. 

Nothing can replace the buzz of being at a Major League ballpark, but with so many games available for viewing at home, I tend to watch more at home than attend live. 

Just as I thought it would be, it’s a tough question to answer. Leave your thoughts in the comments.

Roundtable: Lou Piniella

This weeks roundtable question: Should Lou Piniella be brought back as the Cubs manager next year?

Zach says…Yes. I may be a bit biased because I watched him manager the Mariners at a high level for many years. He may make some strange decisions at times, but he is highly entertaining and knows how to light a fire under his players. Given the right personnel, he could take a team to the World Series, no doubt in my mind.

Jonathan says…Lou Piniella should not return to the Cubs next year. Despite good seasons in 2007 and 2008, it’s become apparent he’s not the right fit for the Cubs (see 2007 and 2008 playoff debacles).  At the beginning of the season he said he had the team he wanted. Now, he’s making excuses for why that team cannot win, including, but not limited to: injuries, lack of clutch hitting, and the size of the ballpark. I also don’t think his fiery managing style works with today’s type of player. It’s time for Lou to move on.

Daniel M says…Sure. I don’t follow the Cubs day to day so I don’t know if any of those complaints that fans commonly have about managers apply. In general, I’d say that the way things are in baseball now – everyone mostly plays by the book ( and not The Book) – a manager is more likely to cost the team wins than gain wins.  So if Pinella is doing even an OK job – and I haven’t heard about anything particularly egregious – then I don’t see any reason to get rid of him.  Especially if he’s already under contract. Personally speaking, I think baseball’s a little better with Sweet Lou around.

Daniel B says…I really don’t think so. Sweet Lou has proven he is a great manager but circumstances just seem to be beyond his control in Chicago. You can’t blame everything – positive or negative – on the manager, but I think it has become apparent that this is just not the right fit.

Robert says…Yes. Lou Piniella is not the problem in Chicago. The problem is they have too many players like Alfonso Soriano who aren’t earning their massive contracts. This team is far too talented to be playing this poorly and while it’s certainly possible they’ve tuned him out, Lou Piniella has the championship jewelry (see “1990 Reds, Cincinnati “) that hasn’t been seen on the North Side since the Roosevelt Administration. Teddy, not Franklin. Lou stays.

Charlie says…Yes.  Sweet Lou should stay.  Player performance is to blame and I’m not going to blame it all on Milton Bradley like some people are.  Instead I offer a great take by MVN’s Wrigleyville23 on why we can’t blame Bradley:

 

“…this is only true if you believe the following:

1. Bradley separated Aramis Ramirez’s shoulder.

2. Bradley sold Geovany Soto his dope and Oreos

3. Bradley Gilloolied Alfonso Soriano’s knee and forced him to play on it game after game.

4. Bradley blew leads in the bullpen.

5. Bradley batted for the second baseman all year.”

 

Also Carlos Zambrano and the fact that Kosuke Fukudome will never be the player they signed him to be. 

Looks like we would like Lou to return to the Cubs next year. But, will the Cubbies feel the same way? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments.

Roundtable: Starting a Franchise

Question: If you could pick any current player to build a team around, who would it be?

Zach says…Tim Lincecum. He still has 4 years of team control left, and is one the most dominant players in baseball. With his sharp fastball and devestating change up and hammer curve, he has the arsenal to take control of any at bat. His salary will be going up every year (unlike my second choice, Longoria), but he will be worth any amount of money the arb board decides to pay him. He’s durable, he’s young, and he’s damn good. He can be on my team, any day.

Daniel M says…I’d have to go with Evan Longoria.  He’s already one of the best players in baseball, both offensively (.274/.352/.526 career hitter – good for a .373 wOBA) and defensively (+17.9 UZR per 150 games career at third-base).  He’s only 23 years old, so he still has his prime years ahead of him.  And he’s signed to a ridiculously cheap contract through (with options picked up) 2016. It’s that last part that puts Longo over the top, since the cost certainty (at a super low cost) allows a team to fill in pieces around him much more easily. Plus, he seems to have those intangibles everybody loves. He may not be strictly the best player in baseball, but he’s almost certainly the most valuable asset to a team.

Daniel B says…Although he makes on average a little more than $14MM per season, I would still take Albert Pujols as the one player to start a club with. The man changes the complexion of a lineup. Period. No one hitter in the game has an immediate impact by just his presence alone like Pujols does. He currently makes less money than some of the game’s other top players (Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez) and he consistently outperforms both. He is easily worth his contract. Factor in his solid glove in the field and his leadership in the clubhouse and you have the ultimate player who actually deserves however much he is paid.

Jonathan says…Evan Longoria. He’s a great ballplayer who’s locked up long-term with a relatively modest contract. The total life of the contract can reach nine years and $44 million if both team options are picked up in 2014 and 2015. Longoria is locked into that contract for the best years of a ballplayer’s career. Aside from the contract, Longoria has the talent a team can build around. He’s not simply a hitter. Longoria is great defensively, sporting a .964 fielding percentage at third base. He’s made only 23 errors in 456 total chances. He plays a difficult position very competently. He can also rake the ball. He’s a 25+ homer, 85+ RBI hitter with a .520+ SLG during his young career. He can hit doubles as well as he hits home runs. It’s only a matter of time before he finally plays over 150 games in a season and really demonstrates his abilities. We caught a glimpse of what he can do during the early stages of the 2008 playoffs. His playoff debut portends a great future. Longoria is a complete player with youth and amazing abilities. He’d be a great cornerstone to any franchise.

Charlie says…I had a lot of back and forth about this one.  Pitcher or position player?  Young, inexpensive or proven star veteran with a sizeable contract?  My choice was Albert Pujols.  He’ll be 30 in 2010, which would give me another 5-7 years of Hall of Fame production in my lineup everyday.  On top of the on the field production, I’d have a player that will be a positive leader off the field as well.  I’m not worried about his contract because (this is pure speculation) I don’t think Pujols is one to go after top dollar and sign with the highest bidder.  Heck, if his contract pays him $20 M per season, he’d still be making less per year than Vernon Wells in 2011-2014.  I also consider the records he might be chasing toward the end of his contract and the fact that parents will want to bring their kids to see a future Hall of Famer (and one of the all-time greats) before he retires.  That doesn’t even speak to the positive influence he’d have on younger teammates.  Pujols is definitely my guy. 

Ricky says…Since I am the Rays blogger here, I would build my team around Evan Longoria for obvious reasons. His potential is incredible, able to produce counting numbers and saber numbers that can account for a quarter of the offensive. And don’t get me started on his defense at third base. A natural born ball player. Albert Pujols would be my second pick and Felix Hernandez for a pitcher.

Robert says…We’re going to go against the grain here and pass on the chalk. If I could pick one player, any player, to build a team around, I think I’ll let Mr. Pujols go elsewhere and instead take Hanley Ramirez, the superb young SS for the Florida Marlins. Ramirez is just 25 years old and hasn’t even hit his prime yet. He is a true 5-tool player and a relative bargain at $5.5 million a year. Albert is the obvious choice and I certainly couldn’t go wrong taking him but Hanley Ramirez is a few years younger, a whole lot less expensive, produces fantastic offensive numbers and for now mans the most important in-play defensive position on the field. Hanley’s my man.

Looks like Longoria narrowly edges Pujols in this one, followed by Lincecum and Hanley. Can I have all 4?

Roundtable: AL Wild Card

This week’s roundtable answers the question: Who will win the AL Wild Card?

Zach says…The Boston Red Sox will still win the Wild Card, even though they are struggling right now. They have the pieces, they just have to make them fit together and play well to complete the puzzle. The Rays need another starter or two that they won’t be able to get, so they are out. The White Sox are my pick to overtake the Tigers in the Central, and whoever loses that won’t have enough wins to take the WC. Look out for the Mariners, who have been surging lately and are very close to reaching the playoffs. They need things to go right to overtake the Rangers, but it could happen.

Daniel B says…This is a tough one but I think that the Red Sox will get the job done and eke out the Wild Card. I don’t think the Rays are strong enough this season, leaving the Rangers as their only real competition. And, at the end of the day, the Red Sox are an overall better team than the Rangers. They’ve won two straight games and are currently playing with a lot of emotion. Beckett and Lester are throwing masterfully, Wakefield is on his way back, and Penny is more or less holding his own. In this vein, I simply don’t believe that Texas has enough pitching to out-win Boston. Both offenses are above average but Boston has the edge in pitching. Down the stretch, solid, consistent pitching is what wins games.

Jonathan says…The Texas Rangers will win the AL Wild Card. The Red Sox are the better team on paper. The Rangers are the better team in the field. Texas is 16-8 in the second half. Boston is 11-15. Texas picked the right time to get on a roll. Their second half play will lead them to the AL Wild Card.

Texas also swept Boston in late July and are 5-1 against the Red Sox this season. Winning series’ against the teams they’re chasing that gives Texas a distinct advantage. The Rangers want to continue this trend against Boston this weekend. This isn’t the same Rangers team who finished way behind the Angels last season in the AL West. The Rangers are playing better, even though Josh Hamilton is having a down year, and are making a run at the right time. Expect them to overtake the Red Sox this weekend and maintain control of the Wild Card lead.   

Ricky says…Ask me last week and I could have easily said the Rays or even the Red Sox. Now is not so certain. The Rangers are consistent yet are an unproven team. The Mariners and White Sox have a shot but the Mariners will likely play spoilers and the W-Sox have a better chance in the Central. Right now, I would go with the Red Sox since they well experienced down the stretch. However their starting pitching needs to get in order or they can easily fall in the Wild Card and maybe place third in the AL East (please).

Robert says…The Red Sox will win the AL Wild Card but just barely. I really like the way Tampa Bay plays but their pitching is spotty and they’re finding out that it’s awfully tough to sneak up on opponents the year after a surprise pennant run. Last year, perhaps teams didn’t spend a lot of time scouting the Rays but this year they’re watching and taking notes. Texas traditionally struggles with late summer heat in Arlington so they’ll have to overcome that hurdle if they want to play when the leaves turn. Boston, on the other hand, is stacked with veteran players who’ve been through some of the toughest stretch runs imaginable. They may not make as much post-season noise as they’d like to but they know how to get there. Red Sox by 2 or 3 games over Tampa and Texas.

Daniel M says…The Boston Red Sox.  The Yankees have all but locked up the AL East, the AL Central just isn’t that good, and the AL West has the Angels with a strong lead and they’re the best team. That realistically leaves the Sox, the Rays, and the Rangers fighting it out for the one Wild Card spot.  The Sox have a slight lead over the Rangers and a larger one over the Rays.  I think Boston and Tampa are about equal on talent – maybe a small advantage to the Rays – with the Rangers a step behind there. [wOBA, FIP, & UZR for the three teams - TBR: .350/4.39/46.3, BOS: .344/3.96/(-21.9), TEX: .335/4.49/25.0]  So if the Rays can’t catch up in time and the Rangers are worse and already behind, that leaves the Sox as the eventual winners.

Charlie says…Though the Red Sox have had a trying month, I still think they win the wild card.  Unlike Texas, Boston has a true ace in Josh Beckett and a number two in Jon Lester that can dominate on any given night.  The back end of their bullpen has also gotten a lift from the emergence of Daniel Bard.  Victor Matinez will make more of an impact than just his all-star level hitting.  He allows guys like Mike Lowell and Jason Veritek to stay fresh as the two veterans fight through the end of a long season.  It’s going to be a dog fight, but in the end the Red Sox get in by a very thin margin.

Our pick for the wild card: Red Sox. But don’t be surprised if the Rangers sweep in and take the playoff spot.

Roundtable: Clay Buchholz

Another week of the roundtable. This week’s question: Will Clay Buchholz ever live up to his potential?

Zach says…Some of it. He has a great changeup and good curve, he just needs to trust his fastball more to get ahead in the count. He already knows how to get ground balls, and he doesn’t walk players in the minors, just the majors. If he trusts his fastball, a 9+ K/9, and 3 BB/9 aren’t out of the question. I expect him to be a #2 starter with a ERA around 3.35 and 13 wins coming each season. Not quite the ace they want, but not too shabby either.

Daniel M says…In his major league career, Buchholz has a 5.64 ERA, but a 4.53 FIP based on a good strike-out rate (8.24 K/9) but too many walks (4.73 BB/9).  I’ve heard that fastball command has been an issue, but according to FanGraphs he’s throwing more pitches in the zone (55%) than the average pitcher (49%). The tools are there, and he may just be a guy for whom everything clicks in his third or fourth year and he goes crazy on the league.  Don’t know if he’ll ever be an Ace (that was his potential a couple years ago, wasn’t it?) but I expect him settle in as a good #2 starter.

Daniel B says…I think he will. We have to remember, Buchholz is still under 25 years old. This is a guy who has thrown a no-hitter–not many people can say that. He has a great power fastball and some solid secondary pitches. And he will only improve with time. He’s 6’3″ and possesses a good pitcher’s build; he has all the tools to be successful. I don’t think he’s going to become Josh Beckett, but I firmly believe he will be a mainstay in whatever rotation he eventually becomes a consistent part of.

Jonathan says…Clay Buchholz will not live up to his potential. He just hasn’t translated high school and minor league stats and ability into major league success. He’s followed his 2007 no-hitter of the Orioles with a 3-10 record in 2008 and 2009. He hasn’t been overly impressive this season despite having pitched at the major league level before 2009.

Right now, Buchholz is not the top-of-the-line starter Boston expected to pitch alongside Jon Lester. If he was, they would not have signed Brad Penny and John Smoltz. He’s more of an end-of-the-rotation pitcher. It doesn’t look as if he’ll reach his potential.

Robert says…That depends on whose idea of potential we’re considering. If you listen to the residents of the greater Eastern Massachusetts seaboard, then Clay Buchholz will never live up to his potential unless he throws a no-hitter every year, runs away with multiple Cy Young Awards and turns Yankee pinstripes green with envy. For everyone else, he could very well win 12-15 games a year with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP and 150 K’s. But we’re a long way from seeing Buchholz develop into a pitcher like that.

Charlie says…I know, I know. Clay Buchholz already has a big league no-hitter to his credit. So did Bud Smith, Eric Milton, Jose Jimenez, Kent Merker, etc… Based on his minor league numbers Buchholz should be more than an above average Major League pitcher.  One could venture to say that his current .382 BABIP allowed despite a low line drive rate has inflated his ERA a bit.  However, it’s the walk rate that is most concerning.  There have been numerous pitchers that have struggled with command early in their careers.  Buchholz only has 19 Major League starts to his credit over the past two seasons.  He needs to get a 30+ start season under his belt.  I think in the end he’ll be an above average starter for his career, but maybe not the ace some thought he would be.

Looks like mostly came to a similar conclusion: Buchholz will be good, but maybe not ace good. Till next week…

Roundtable: Deadline Winners

Special roundtable this week, as I wanted to get everyone thoughts on trades.

Question: Who was the biggest winner this trading season?

Zach says…I have to go with the Cardinals and Indians. Cleveland needed to grab some prospects to begin a new cycle there, and they did just that. I’m a big Masterson fan, and felt that getting either him or Bucholtz would be a big win for the Tribe. The Cardinals got two big bats to compliment Pujols. I would have prefered that one be a lefty to balance the lineup, but the Cardinals order is still solid.

Daniel M. says…In almost every instance in which a team traded a veteran for prospects they came out ahead in the deal, so you could say that the sellers were winners. The Red Sox (V-Mart) and Phillies (Lee) did well picking up impact players without giving up their top prospects. The Blue Jays came out well in the Rolen trade, but not dealing Halladay as well was likely a mistake. I don’t get that deal from the Reds perspective, nor why the Braves traded Casey Kotchman for Adam LaRoche – or the Royals in general. The most credit might go Neal Huntington of the Pirates, more for having a plan and being willing to follow it through than any one deal in particular.  The Pirates have been losing for a while, and a full rebuilding was a long time coming.  It’s painful now to completely tear down the team, but it’s the right move for the franchise. The O’s did well with the Sherrill trade, but I would have liked to have seen a couple more (Huff, Baez). Still have the waiver trades available though.

Jonathan says…Philadelphia is the biggest winner of the trade season. Philadelphia obtained a Cy Young-winning ace in Cliff Lee without surrendering every major prospect in their farm system. Philadelphia strengthened its ability to win now without completely foreclosing their ability to rebuild from within and win in the future when the time comes. The Cliff Lee trade was a masterstroke by Ruben Amaro. He didn’t give in to J.P. Ricciardi’s over-the-top demands and still obtained an ace and a good right-handed bat for the bench in Ben Francisco. The price may seem steep, but was actually modest given how the Phillies organization came to evaluate Carrasco, Donald, and Marson. Losing the potential in Jason Knapp for the very real possibility of a dynasty is a price worth paying.

No comparable trade was made this Trade Deadline. The only way the Phillies could have been topped is if Boston obtained Victor Martinez and Roy Halladay. They didn’t. The Cliff Lee trade made one of baseball’s hottest teams a very real favorite to repeat for the World Series.

Daniel B. says…It’s definitely the Phillies. They landed the reigning AL Cy Young winner in Cliff Lee and spurned the overzealous Blue Jays. Furthermore, nobody in the division did anything substantial. The Braves got Adam LaRoche and the Marlins landed Nick Johnson. Neither made a move that even put themselves where the Phillies were before reeling in Lee. Philadelphia made themselves better while everybody else was left in the dust.

Ricky says…A tough question since there were several teams to add key players. The Tigers and Phillies added another starter, the Pirates got a boatload of decent prospects, and the O’s have been quietly getting better with a couple bullpen arms. I’m going to say the St. Louis Cardinals got what they needed which was offense: adding OF Matt Holiday who likes a real ballpark, and Mark DeRosa who is very versatile. They have a wOBA of around .320 and are behind the Dodgers and Phillies in runs scored so adding them to the mix should go hand in hand with a very strong rotation and an improving bullpen.

Robert says…Red Sox – Victor Martinez fills a big hole in their lineup as Jason Varitek continues to slow down with age.  Plus the Sox got Martinez without giving up prized prospect Clay Buchholz. Phillies - Same goes for Cliff Lee. He takes over a crucial spot in the Phillies rotation and didn’t cost them any of their best and most highly valued farm talent. Cardinals - Matt Holliday provides excellent support for Albert Pujols and has already paid a healthy return on investment.

Looks like the Phillies win with 4 votes, with the Cardinals close second with 3.