Halladay’s Hardball Command

[Update] Roy Halladay’s two fastballs are really, really, really, good. Command likely a factor.

I always thought that the most useful tool of pitch f/x data was the pitch location. You can find out so much using that. Plus with the pitch track, we can see what pitch it was as well.

Following in the footsteps of Mister Dave Allen, here is a frequency chart of the location of Roy Halladay’s cutters (and painfully classified).

To both left handed and right handed hitters, Doc pounds that right hand part of the plate and in then some. Not Mariano Riveria like with the command (note the fat part of the plate) but his performance and commitment to the cutter is why he uses it over 40% of the time with a run value of 13.5 for the fourth highest among Major League starters.

For comparison’s sake, here is what his normal fastball looks like.

CC’s Changeup

I was scrolling through some pitch leaders this morning, and noticed that C.C. Sabathia has a great changeup this year. I dug a little deeper, and noticed that CC’s changeup has been steadily improving since 2005.

wCH/c (Changeup run value per 100 pitches)

2005 – 0.36 

2006 – 1.33

2007 – 1.65

2008 – 2.30

2009 – 3.58

Great improvement on the pitch from CC. Looking at his pitch f/x data from 2007 and beyond, the pitch’s movement hasn’t altered any, and the velocity and usage of the pitch has stayed the same. Most likely thing causing improvement then becomes location. I don’t have the data to back it up, but is seems like the only logical solution at this point.

BDD: Even More Tazawa F/x

Helping out fellow BDDer Michael Street again, I provided some flight path charts from Junichi Tazawa’s last few outings, where he hasn’t been doing so well.

Check it out

BDD: Bumgarner’s Debut with F/x

I was busy yesterday. As soon as Bumgarner’s debut was over, I ran Pitch F/x on his debut.

Check it out:

His armslot is what will really throw the hitter off, as it is almost of the page. The sidearm motion will make the slider and cutting fastball look even deadlier to a hitter, and even nastier to a lefty. If he doesn’t get his velocity back, he’s at worst a lefty setup guy who will dominate left handed hitters throughout the league.

BDD: Quick F/x – Tim Hudson’s Returns

In my latest at BDD, I ran some pitch f/x on Tim Hudson’s 2009 debut.

Check it out:

Hudson’s bread and butter is the sinker and splitter, and he still throws them with good movement. His velocity was in the very high 80′s, right where it’s been in the past. He kept the splitter low in the zone where it belongs, and swept his slider off the plate while painting the corners with his sinker.

The NL West just got really interesting

Late last night, the NL West and NL wild card race got really, really interesting. There were four moves made, and all should help the Giants, Rockies and Dodgers in their chase for the playoffs. Here are the moves made, with a little analysis thrown in.

Jim Thome to the Dodgers – LA added a big power bat from the left side to compliment Manny, but how much will he play? James Loney is already driving in runs at first base, and he plays solid defense to go along with the offense. We don’t know how Thome could play of D, as he hasn’t played there in quite awhile. If I were Torre, I would play Thome at first and bring in Loney late in games (7th innings and on) if the team had the lead already.

Jon Garland to the Dodgers – Garland isn’t anything exciting, but the D’Backs will be paying almost (if not) all of his remaining salary this year and next. Garland gives them a veteran that they wanted, but I’m not sure how helpful he’ll be. He doesn’t strike you out and doesn’t walk you, but his ground ball rate is not as high as it should be. He will provide innings here on out, but don’t expect him to be very important in the playoffs.

Brad Penny to the Giants – This was a move I didn’t expect, but Penny will be good for the Giants, no doubt in my mind.He’ll fill the spot that Randy Johnson was supposed to occupy when the season started, and will provide quality production now and in the playoffs if they make it that far.

Jose Contreras to the Rockies – Just trying to make things interesting for everyone else, the Rockies grabbed the aging starter from the White Sox. He is much better than his 5-13 record shows. He is striking out almost twice as many batters as he walks, and is getting ground balls. He will be fine in the NL and in Coors, and could actually make a bigger impact than Penny. Doubtful, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

At time of publishing, the Dodgers are 5.5 games ahead of both the Rockies and Giants, who are tied for the NL Wild Card lead. Atlanta is 3 games back of the Rox and Giants, and they were my preseason pick to win the WC. However, if I had to guess, I think the Giants and Dodgers make the playoffs.

A Wonderful Display Of Command

If you have a penchant for pitch f/x graphs, take a gander at this one.

No it wasn’t a sinker ball pitcher on his game, it was the veteran John Smoltz who pitched six innings allowing a run on four hits and one walk, while striking out six. Getting pitches around the knees is ideal for most pitchers, although getting a good fastball around the letters is good once in a while. Still throwing a four seam with that much consistency is why Smoltz is going to the HOF. The fastball isn’t where it once was, but around the 91-92 mph is workable considering that he knows how to pitch using a nasty split, a slider, and a curve ball.

The move back to the NL was the right decision for Smoltz. Facing a league where he has pitched in for 20 years with the Braves. This could be a nice ending to his career with the Cardinals: pitching in the post season.

Pitch f/x graph from Brooks Baseball

Awesome Pitch F/X Graphs: Peter Moylan’s Sinker

The reliever with the second highest ground ball percentage is Atlanta’s own sidearm slinging reliever RHP Peter Moylan. His main pitch his a sinker that gets movement by having top spin and is thrown around 90 mph. The Aussie also adds a slider and changeup into the mix. With that sinker and high groundball rate, I created a graph charting all the sinkers and those sinkers that have induced groundballs with a platoon split:

(Click on image for a much larger one)

Moylan pounds the sinker low and away from lefties, more so away. And with right-handed hitters Moylan can pound the strikezone and use the tail to come in on the hands. Thus he has better splits against right-handers.

After having Tommy John surgery in April last season, Moylan has lost some zip to the fastball but is having the best season in the Majors in only his second full season.

A Quick Pitch F/X Look At Scott Feldman

The win leader of a young Texas Ranger rotation (minus Kevin Millwood) Scott Feldman features two fastballs in the low 90s that he uses to put a lot of balls into play. The 4.85 K/9 clearly shows Feldman’s plan of getting the ball in play, which just so happens to be lucky this season with a .265 BABIP. His main two pitches are the four seam fastball with some sink and a cutter that comes as hard as the four seamer.

Pitch f/x provides great illustration of those two pitches.

I think deception in a pitcher includes hiding the ball from the hitter, but also having some separation on the movement of pitches with little velocity separation. Feldman has that with a fastball the averages 92-93 mph to a cutter that comes in at 90-91 mph.

By the way this flight path template was made by Zach Sanders.

Ichiro And Outside Pitches

Inspired by this post illustrating Ichrio’s inhuman qualities, here are some nice pics of Ichiro hitting outside pitches in pitch f/x and in real life.

Fan Graphs provides the O-Contact% stat which is defined as follows: Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown outside the strike zone.

Ichiro is not first in this category, but he should be considering he swings at over 30% of outside pitches. A 84.9% O-Contact is second in the Majors behind Dustin Pedroia and ahead of Marco Scutaro. Funny how the short players populate the leader boards in O-Contact. Must be that they are able to get to low pitches much easier or something like that.

Here is the location of all the pitches Ichiro has swung at: fouls and balls in play.
Now for the physical proof.