For those of you who watched the Phillies end the Rockies’ season last night, you may remember Dexter Fowler leapfrogging Chase Utley to beat a double play. That was awesome. You may also remember Huston Street pitching to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, who, if you don’t remember, are left-handed. And for some other important background information, it is instrumental to recall that Huston Street is right-handed, while fellow Rox reliever Joe Beimel is left-handed. Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are also left-handed, but that’s neither here nor there.
Now, here’s the career splits of all four of those players (baseball players, not Clinton; this isn’t the place for subtle political humor) when facing left and right handers.
Utley vs LHP: .287/.375/.502. Utley vs RHP: .305/.383/.544
Howard vs LHP: .226/.310/.444. Howard vs RHP: .307/.409/.661
LHB vs Street: .219/.299/.370, 2.46 K:BB. RHB vs Street: .204/.241/.286, 6.13 K:BB
LHB vs Beimel: .265/.326/.404, 2.51 K:BB. RHB vs Beimel: .285/.365/.424, 0.90 K:BB
Now, it’s apparent that Street is a much more effective pitcher than
Beimel. So I can understand leaving him in to face Utley – and indeed,
Street almost retired him. But Utley’s splits aren’t THAT much different; he’s still an All-Star level hitter against lefties. Where I have a problem with Jim Tracy’s strategy is what happened when Ryan Howard came to the plate. Ryan Howard is awful
against lefties. Just awful. When a lefty on the mound, he’s Ronnie
Belliard (actually, a little worse; Belliard’s career OPS is .757).
Against righties, he’s practically Ted Williams. At this point, you ignore the fact that Street is better than Beimel, because Beimel against Howard is a better situation than Street against Howard. So why would a
manger, who presumably has access to this information, leave a
right-handed pitcher in to face Howard when he has a lefty ready in the
pen?
Well, the answer’s pretty simple, isn’t it: Huston Street, the righty, is The Closer. And it is just unspeakable that somebody other than The Closer pitch in the ninth inning; it’s rare territory that is just too demanding for any normal pitcher. But the fact of the matter is, the last three outs – and this is important – are no more difficult to get than any other three outs. Further, the ninth inning is often easier to pitch in than earlier innings, since relievers always come in with the bases empty.
To illustrate this point: imagine that you’re managing a team, any team, against the Cardinals. It’s the bottom of the 6th, you’re winning 5-4, and your pitcher walked Joe Thurston in the 9 spot (shame on him). Well, this is worrying. You get the bullpen up. Skip Schumaker singles. Runners on 1st and 3rd. Ohh, boy. Colby Rasmus works a walk. Well, now you’re really in trouble. Albert Pujols is up, the bases are full of Redbirds, and there’s nobody out. So you go out there and take out your starter, because he’s done. And you call to the pen and bring out some middle reliever, who promptly hangs a slider that Pujols, as is his wont, hammers 450 feet to left center.
Now, unless your stadium fences 455 feet away in the alley, you’ve just given up four runs and that one run lead has become a 3-run deficit. And all of this could’ve been avoided if you’d just brought in your best pitcher. But…he’s your Closer, you say. He can only pitch in the ninth! And maybe the eighth, but only for like a batter; let’s not get crazy.
That situation happens far too often. Managers save their best pitchers for the ninth inning, when no one is on base, and the team has the lead. To wit, Brad Lidge in his perfect season never once got more than three outs in a game. To be fair, he’s rarely gotten so many as three outs this season, but I’m trying to prove a point here – managers should pay attention to the situation more than the inning when deciding which pitcher to bring into the game. This is especially true of bad teams, or at least teams with bad bullpens; it’s one thing for the Yankees to insist on using Mariano Rivera exclusively in the 9th, because they have other quality options in the bullpen, and are often playing with the lead. But if you’re the Royals, you (a) don’t have very many 9th-inning leads to protect, and (b) are giving the bulk of your relief innings to bad pitchers. So why not get more use out of your best bullpen arm in Joakim Soria, have him throw 100 innings a year, and maximize his value?
Well, one reason is the fact that saves are, for some reason, used as the measuring stick for relievers. Francisco Rodriguez got himself a $37 million contract because he saved 62 games, despite a not-so-eye-popping ERA, diminishing stuff, and declining control. Rafael Betancourt in 2007 allows 0.75 baserunners per inning, strikes out 9 per 9 while walking just 1 per 9 and gets…nothing. Treating saves as an indicator of how relievers perform is the sort of thinking that lets 2007 Joe Borowski pitch in 65 innings despite a 5.07 ERA. But he must be good, right, because he had a league-leading 45 saves? Sigh… We see the same sort of problem with Brian Fuentes this year; he led the league with 48 saves, but he had a 1.40 WHIP and ~4.00 ERA. And yet people are just as likely to point to the 48 saves and say he was good as they are a 1.92 K:BB ratio to say that he’s, well, not very good.
What really strikes me as strange about saves is that they are the ultimate “compiler” stat. You know how people say Bert Blyleven shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame because he was a “compiler;” that his 3,701 strikeouts and 287 wins are the result of just hanging around the game for lots of years? Well, why aren’t closers viewed as “compilers?” The stat that they compile is no more useful than a hold (and significantly less useful than compiling 3,701 strikeouts) – but no one is going to be talking about Scot Shields for the Hall of Fame any time soon. It’s as if saves are some sort of noble stat that are beyond the reach of all except a special class of hardened warriors. Of course, with the way that closers have been blowing saves this past week, they might all pitch themselves out of a job and bring a merciful end to this inane practice.
