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Paddy’s Playoff Picks: Championship Edition

After missing only one series last time, I’m back for more.  And yes I’m aware that bragging about doing well on my picks after only picking one series is sort of silly, but hey – the internet’s never been a place for humility.  So follow along for more prodigious playoff picking prowess.

Winners in bold

Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees

The Yankees and Angels are not dissimilar teams – they’re 1-2 in runs scored per game, and 14th and 18th in runs allowed per game.  But the problem for the Angels is that they come out on the low end of both of those measures, and not by a particularly close margin.  The Yanks also boast a .366 wOBA to the Halos’ .346, and a 4.32 FIP as compared to the Westerners’ 4.45.  Now, it should be noted that the Red Sox also had advantages in wOBA and FIP, and yet the Angels had little trouble sweeping them out of the playoffs.  And that happened mostly because the Angels were able to shut down the talented Sox offense, to say nothing of hitting Jonathan Papelbon’s fastballs.  The same thing could happen here; if Jered Weaver and John Lackey go out and dominate again, the Yankees could quickly be in hot water.  And with their announced intention to go with 3 starters, the last thing they want is an extended series.  But, for me, I can’t pick against this deep, powerful lineup and lefty ace that can neutralize the Angels for a couple of wins.  Yankees in 6.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

I really do want to pick the Phillies here after they played well against the Rockies.  That was a tough team they dispatched, and their offense showed the ability to keep them in any game.  But one thing jumped out at me as I was researching this: the Dodgers feast on left-handed pitching.  As a team, they hit .294/.380/.469 against southpaws – think David Wright with some extra power. And as you might remember, the Phillies feature two such pitchers at the top of their rotation.  While the Rockies can be neutralized by lefties, the Dodgers will likely benefit.  Further, the Dodgers are stocked in the bullpen, meaning there’s only so much even Joe Torre can do to mess it up, and Clayton Kershaw should be good for two wins. I just don’t see enough adding up in Philly’s favor for them to overcome this Dodgers team.  And yes, this is despite the fact that I picked the boys in blue to lose in the first round.  Let’s move on from the past, and look ahead to a future of Dodgers in 5.

Hot Stove Position to Watch: Left Field for the Boston Red Sox

Jason Bay can’t sign with any club except the Boston Red Sox until at least the middle of November. Yet, the two sides are nowhere near one another in terms the length and money involved in a contract extension. The Sox couldn’t get Bay to sign an extension in March or during the All-Star Break. What makes the time between now and mid-November any different? “It’s very unusual for a player not to take the opportunity to at least listen, if he’s come this far, to what other teams have to say,” general manager Theo Epstein said.

The Red Sox want to keep Bay and Bay wants to stay with the team. Yet, a deal just hasn’t happened. With that said, uncertainty exists and the Red Sox need to find other options in case Bay doesn’t resign. Expect the Red Sox to search for his replacement in the free agent market.

Since it’s Boston and they have deep pockets, Matt Holliday is a likely replacement. Bay has more power – 36 home runs, 119 RBI – and did more offensively in 50 fewer at-bats. Holliday is a better defender whose numbers could mimic Bay’s if placed in the middle of the Red Sox lineup for a full season. But Holliday is represented by Scott Boras, who as Sean McAdam notes, “After the Sox failed to sign free agent Mark Teixeira last December, Red Sox ownership vowed to not do business with Boras’ clients again, though that might have been the frustration talking.”

If Holliday wants a contract equal to or greater than Bay’s and the Sox won’t meet Bay’s demands, they won’t go for Holliday.

A little bit on the Dodgers NLCS rotation

Joe Torre still seems undecided when it comes to his NLCS starting rotation against the Phillies. Ken Gurnick of MLB.com has more:

There are strong indications that Torre will have the 21-year-old Kershaw start Game 1 of the NL Championship Series, too, and as a bonus, Torre’s probably getting Hiroki Kuroda back after Kuroda missed the first round of the playoffs.

The Dodgers manager, though, was confirming nothing Tuesday. He said he won’t announce until Wednesday who would start the first two games of the series against the Phillies, to be played Thursday and Friday at Dodger Stadium. Against the Cardinals, Wolf started Game 1 and Kershaw started Game 2.

Gurnick also mentions that Cole Hamels will likely start Game 1, with Cliff Lee likely holding off until Game 3. This makes games 1 and 2 crucial for the Dodgers, and their pitching matchups will have to be perfect if they want to take the series from the Phillies.

Torre should go with Kershaw in Game 1, Randy Wolf in Game 2, and Kuroda/Billingsley in 3. If they decide to go with a 4-man rotation, Vicente Padilla deserves to pitch in Game 4  Either Kuroda or Billingsley (whoever doesn’t start) will likely be in the bullpen for the series, as will Jon Garland, giving Joe Torre the resources to pull the plug on a starter early if they aren’t performing up to his standards.  

BDD: Dayton Moore Got One Thing Right

In my latest at Baseball Daily Digest, I look at Zack Greinke’s contract already paying for itself, and other instances of this around the league.

Check it out:

The best part about Greinke’s deal, is that it’s really over and done with. According to FanGraph’s WAR data, Greinke was worth $42.4 million this year alone! That is $4 million more than the Royals will pay him for all four seasons of play. Anything Greinke gives them from here on out is just gravy, because he has already lived up to his contract.

Breakfast Links: Mets, MacDougal, Jenks

Some extra meaty breakfast links today…

• MLB.com’s Marty Noble wonders if Jason Bay or Matt Holliday would be willing to sign with the Mets due to their steep decline this year. I remember last season when Holliday to the Mets seemed all but done in 2010, but I don’t think it happens now.
• Mike MacDougal had some hip surgery yesterday, and expects to be fully recovered by spring training. MacDougal has a $3.75MM club option for next year, and last I’d heard the Nationals haven’t decided one way or another. My suggestion? Don’t do it, and let him walk.
• The Brewers are interviewing candidates for their pitching coach vacancy. Bryan Price is one of the candidates, and I’ve been a fan of his sever since he made Paul Abbott look like a successful pitcher in Seattle.
• Bobby Jenks doesn’t like it when you call him fat.

Closing out Closers

For those of you who watched the Phillies end the Rockies’ season last night, you may remember Dexter Fowler leapfrogging Chase Utley to beat a double play.  That was awesome.  You may also remember Huston Street pitching to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, who, if you don’t remember, are left-handed.  And for some other important background information, it is instrumental to recall that Huston Street is right-handed, while fellow Rox reliever Joe Beimel is left-handed.  Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are also left-handed, but that’s neither here nor there.

Now, here’s the career splits of all four of those players (baseball players, not Clinton; this isn’t the place for subtle political humor) when facing left and right handers.

Utley vs LHP:  .287/.375/.502.  Utley vs RHP: .305/.383/.544 
Howard vs LHP: .226/.310/.444.  Howard vs RHP: .307/.409/.661
LHB vs Street: .219/.299/.370, 2.46 K:BB.   RHB vs Street: .204/.241/.286, 6.13 K:BB
LHB vs Beimel: .265/.326/.404, 2.51 K:BB.  RHB vs Beimel: .285/.365/.424, 0.90 K:BB

Now, it’s apparent that Street is a much more effective pitcher than
Beimel.  So I can understand leaving him in to face Utley – and indeed,
Street almost retired him.  But Utley’s splits aren’t THAT much different; he’s still an All-Star level hitter against lefties.  Where I have a problem with Jim Tracy’s strategy is what happened when Ryan Howard came to the plate.  Ryan Howard is awful
against lefties.  Just awful.  When a lefty on the mound, he’s Ronnie
Belliard (actually, a little worse; Belliard’s career OPS is .757). 
Against righties, he’s practically Ted Williams.  At this point, you ignore the fact that Street is better than Beimel, because Beimel against Howard is a better situation than Street against Howard.  So why would a
manger, who presumably has access to this information, leave a
right-handed pitcher in to face Howard when he has a lefty ready in the
pen?

A look back and a look ahead

Thanks to one of the most entertaining games of the 2009 Division Series, we now have our Championship Series matchups. Philadelphia and Los Angeles will meet to decide the National League Champion. The Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees will decide the American League Champion. Before moving on to those series, it should be acknowledged that the 2009 Division Series were historical.

2009 marked the first time in the Wild Card era that all four teams clinched their spot in the Championship series on the road. All four winners had home-field advantage and all four clinched at the opponent’s stadium. Before this postseason, six seasons featured three series winners closing out the first round away from home (1996, 1998, 1999, 2003, 2004, and 2007). 2001 was the only season in which all four Division Series were clinched at home. 2009 also tied 2007 for the fewest Division Series games played with only 13. Philadelphia prevented a stand alone record by letting the Rockies make their NLDS interesting for one more game.

Should the Red Sox trade Papelbon?

Someone has to take the blame for the Red Sox collapse against the Angels this year, and Jonathan Papelbon may be the one to take the fall.

Responding to an Yahoo! article that asks if the Papelbon should be trade bait, Jorge Says, well, No! Josh states his case:

The idea to trade Papelbon this offseason is just flat out dumb. I know Red Sox fans are pissed off about the ALDS and how game 3 ended, but trading Papelbon is not the answer.

Firstly, there is already an absurd number of closers out there on the free agent market. Why would any team pay a premium price forPapelbon when there are so many effective lower cost options available (Kevin Gregg, Jose Valverde, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano)?

In addition, one of the ideas why the Red Sox would trade Papelbon is because his salary is becoming too exorbitant. Papelbon earned $6.25 million this season and will be due another raise in arbitration this winter. But lemme ask you this: what team out there is willing to pay a closer between $8-$10 million annually?

Josh goes on to say that the only real trade possibility is the Tigers, and that the Bo Sox may be reluctant to deal him within the AL.

I’m of a dissenting opinion. I’m all in favor of trading Papelbon if the package is adequate, and I think there will be more teams interested than anyone would expect. There are two reasons the Red Sox should consider dealing Papelbon. 

1. Money - I’ve always believed that you don’t pay for closers. I’m not talking fantasy, but in the real MLB. Paying a premium for closers just seems ridiculous to me. I understand that they aren’t easy to find, but spending $10MM for ~60 innings a year is too much for my blood. Teams like the Red Sox and Yankees can afford it, but for most teams it is a luxury that isn’t worth paying for. 

2. Replacements - With Bard under team control for five more years, he is a cheap replacement that shows the potential to be a dominant closer in the league. Also, it shouldn’t cost too much to keep Saito around, and I think Billy Wagner would be willing to come back if he was the closer.

There are also many positives to keeping Papelbon. He seems like a good teamate who gets along with Youk and Pedroia, and he has proven that he has what it takes to be dominant in the league.

In the end, I don’t see the Red Sox dealing him, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they did.

Rick Ankiel: Free Agent

With Colby Rasmus taking over the Cardinals everyday centerfield job, Rick Ankiel is not likely to be back with the Cardinals next year. 

A former pitcher, Ankiel has shown solid production as an OF for the Cards, and it has come time for him to become a free agent. 

At the plate, most of his value has come via the home run. In his first full season as a full time big league OF last year, Ankiel hit 25 jacks while batting .264/.337/.506. In an injury riddled 2009, Ankiel hit only 11 with a line of .231/.285/.387. So, what happened to him? 

He battled shoulder issues most of the year, dropping his HR/FB from the high teens to 8.9%. Also, he swung at more balls outside the zone and made contact outside the zone at a lower rate than in the past. This could of come with forcing the issue and trying out perform Rasmus to keep his job. 

 

On the defensive side, Ankiel’s sample size is still a bit to small to care about. He has only played 276 games in the outfield, but seems to perform better in the corner spots, where his range is considerably better. Don’t forget, he does have an arm and is famous for gunning runners down at a long distance.